A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
